The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published a short piece this week on what its 2024 to 2034 projections say about AI and technology jobs. Software developers are projected to grow 15.8%, or 267,700 jobs, the largest absolute gain of any occupation in the group. Data scientists grow faster in percentage terms, 33.5%, and information security analysts 28.5%, from smaller bases. The occupations the agency expects AI to shrink are the ones you would guess: procurement clerks, credit checkers, legal secretaries, customer service representatives, where it says productivity gains will dampen demand.
I hold projections loosely. This one was made before anyone knows how far the current tools go. But I think the direction is worth taking seriously, because it points at a contradiction in how teams are hiring right now.
If the field needs a quarter of a million more developers in eight years, those people have to come from somewhere, and the only somewhere is the entry level. Yet entry-level postings in software are the smallest share of any occupation, and employment for developers in their early twenties has fallen sharply since 2022. The industry is projecting growth and not planting it.
My view is that a team which stops hiring juniors is making a decision about its own future, not just this year's budget. The experienced developers of 2034 are the beginners of 2027, or they do not exist.
When did your team last hire someone with under three years of experience?
Photo source: https://photos.robertstowe.com/northern-arizona